Date: 2025 Aug 07 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar activity has been moderate with a single M-class (R1-Minor) flare and numerous C-class flares. Region 4168 (N05W23, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for most of the activity including the M1.0 at 06/1702 UTC. The region has grown in its length as well as the size of its leader. Flux emergence in its intermediate region has slowed but continues.Other notable areas were Region 4167 (N11W92, Ehi/beta-gamma) which produced a couple C-class flares around 06/0800 UTC as well as Region 4170 (S17W54, Dao/beta-gamma) which produced a C2.9 at 06/1453 UTC. Region 4173 (S16W25, Bxo/beta) was newly numbered but has been quiet. Region 4172(N08E52, Cro/beta-gamma) has been exhibiting fairly rapid flux emergence which has moved it into a circular shape but has been quiet.There have been no CMEs in coronagraph imagery during the period.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate levels with a high chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 07-09 Aug. Higher probabilities are being driven by the complexity and current activity of Region 4168.Energetic Particle Under waning coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) influence, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux on GOES-19 remained categorically moderate during its diurnal maxima. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels through the period.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 07 Aug. The next CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective 08-09 Aug; enhanced electron flux is expected but stronger solar wind speeds may keep the Van Allen belts compressed enough to remain below threshold.Regarding the greater than 10 MeV proton flux, conditions are expected to remain at background level. However, Region 4167 remains a threat through 07 Aug based on its position and complexity, as well as, Region 4168 whose delta configuration increases likelihood of significant flaring and its progression into the western hemisphere will provide for a favorable geoeffective position.
Solar wind parameters relected nominal wind conditions. Total field (Bt) was around 5 nT with the north-south (Bz) component oscillating between +/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds were around 400-450 km/s. The phi angle remained in the negative (towards the Sun) sector.
Forecast: Nominal condtions are expected 07 Aug with enhanced parameters starting 08 Aug. A CME associated with an M4.4 flare on 05/1553 UTC was analzyed and determined to have an Earth-directed component. Most of the ejecta looks to pass ahead of Earth but the back-end was modelled to arrive during the first half the UTC day on 08 Aug. Around this time, the co-rotating interacting region (CIR) ahead of the positive polarity CH HSS that is originating from the large, southern hemisphere CH is expected to arrive as well. The combination of the two will enhance the interplanetary magnetic field, increase density, and solar wind speed. Parameters will remain enhanced through 09 Aug.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels 07 Aug. The field is expected to become enhanced 08-09 Aug with the arrival of the aforementioned CIR and CME as discussed in the
section. A G2 (Moderate) Watch has been issued for 08 Aug based on the highest liklihood of arrival of both systems. Lingering conditions are likely into 09 Aug, a G1 (Minor) Watch was issued during this time.-Bri