Date: 2026 Feb 02 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar activity was at very high levels. Region 4366 (N14E28, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to evolve in its growth phase as it increased in size, gained new spots and maintained a few spots of opposite polarity inside maturing asymmetric penumbra. AR 4366 produced nineteen M-class flares and four X-class flares during the reporting period. The most notable of the X-class events were an X8.1 flare at 01/2357 UTC, an X2.8 flare at 02/0036 UTC and an X1.6 flare at 02/0814 UTC. Additionally new spots were noted near S21E77, but remain unnumbered at this time due to classification uncertainty caused by limb foreshortening.A complex eruption resulting in possibly three CMEs was associated with the X8.1 and X2.8 event. The first CME front became visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 02/0012 UTC followed by another at 02/0048 and the third at perhaps 02/0126 UTC, with the latter being difficult to discern due to degraded imagery. A STEREO-A COR2 gap was also occuring during this time, further compounding the uncertaintly of anlaysis. Initial modeling efforts of this event returned with possible glancing blows at Earth beginning to arrive by late on 05 May. We await further adequate coronagraph imagery to analyze the aformentioned later events.
Forecast: Moderate solar activity due to M-class flares is expected for the next three days with a high chance for occasional X-class flare events due to continued frequent activity from AR 4366.Energetic Particle The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued to reach high levels with a peak flux of 10,020 pfu at 01/1450 UTC.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels through 04 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is likely to exceed the S1 (Minor) levels on 02 Feb with a chance on 03-04 Feb due to the recent X8.1 flare event from AR 4366 and possible future eruptions UTC.
Available solar wind measurements at L1 were absent transient or recurrent influences. Solar wind speed declined from ~350 to ~300 km/s. Total field ranged 4-7 nT and the Bz component was mostly benign, only undergoing minor southward deflections. Phi was predominantly in a negative orientaion.
Forecast: A quiescent solar wind regime is expected to continue through 04 Feb barring any significant eruptive events.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet through 04 Feb.