Date: 2026 Feb 23 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar activity increased slightly to low levels following weak C-class flare activity from old Region 4374 (N10, L=065) to include a C2.2 event observed at 22/0633 UTC. A long duration C1.5 flare was observed at 22/1641 UTC from an area behind WSW limb. Aside from this minor activity, the visible disk was spotless and relatively inactive. A 15 degree long eruptive prominence was observed at about 22/1530 UTC off the SE limb.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on 23-25 Feb, and a slight chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) over 23-25 Feb.Energetic Particle The greater than 2 MeV electron flux very briefly reached high levels this period, but fell just short of the alert threshold. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach moderate to high levels on 23-25 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 25 Feb.
The solar wind environment reflected enhanced conditions following the likely passing of a suspected embedded transient, combined with onset of a CIR and subsequent negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength reached 16 nT, the Bz component ranged between +/-10 nT, and solar wind speeds increased from around 550 km/s to the 600-700 km/s range. The phi angle was in a predominately negative orientation.
Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely to prevail over 23-24 Feb due to persistent CIR/negative polarity CH HSS influences. Solar wind conditions are expected to wane on 25 Feb.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1/G2 (Minor/Moderate) storm levels on 23 Feb, followed by likely active storm conditions on 24 Feb, due to CIR effects and negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 25 Feb as CH HSS effects wane.