Date: 2025 Apr 02 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar activity reached high levels due to an M5.6 flare at 01/0646 UTC from Region 4046 (N05E20, Cho/beta-gamma). Associated with this flare was a 195 sfu tenflare as well as additional discrete radio events. Region 4048 (S16E40, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to be the largest and most complex spot group. It was responsible for an impulsive M2.5 flare at 01/2231 UTC as well as a couple of mid-level C-class flares. Slight decay occurred in the smaller trailing spots of Region 4046. Separation was apparent in the intermediate area of Region 4048 while the leading and intermediate spots began to consolidate.Other activity included an approximate 10 degree filament eruption centered near S36W45 at 01/1539 UTC. CME analysis is pending coronagraph imagery of the event.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong) on 02-04 Apr.Energetic Particle The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 3,240 pfu at 01/1815 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 31/1105 UTC, crossed the S2 (Moderate) threshold at 01/0205 UTC, reached a peak of 147 pfu at 01/0425 UTC, and dropped below S2 levels at 01/0910 UTC.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels on 02-04 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist above the S1 (Minor) threshold through midday on 02 Apr. There is a chance for an S1 (Minor) event on 02-03 Apr due to the flare potential of Regions 4046 and 4048.
Solar wind parameters became enhanced after 01/1730 UTC, possibly attributed to the 27 Mar CME. Total field increased to 15 nT while the Bz component varied between +9/-5 nT. Solar wind ranged from 353-475 km/s. Phi angle was positive.
Forecast: Weak transient activity will likely continue through at least the early part of 02 Apr. Another enhancement is expected early to midday on 04 Apr due to the arrival of a CIR preceding a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. The geomagnetic field was quiet.
Forecast: Quiet to active levels are expected through 02 Apr due to residual CME influence. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 03 Apr. By early to midday on 04 Apr, a CIR preceding a recurrent CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to likely G1 (Minor) storm conditions.