Date: 2026 Jul 03 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar activity continued at moderate levels as Region 4479 (N16W59, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M1.2 (R1-Minor) flare at 02/2312 UTC. This was the largest, and only M-class, flare of the period. Towards the end of the period, this region also produced an atypical long-duration C9.2 flare that peaked at 03/0951 UTC. Region 4480 (S17W63, Eai/beta-gamma) contributed an isolated C-class flare, while Region 4478 (S06W39, Fko/beta-gamma) remained mostly quiet. All three regions exhibited decay throughout the period, with Region 4478 losing its delta configuration.The narrow eruption north of the solar disk mentioned in the previous discussion was modeled and deemed to be too far north of the ecliptic for an Earth-directed component. A subsequent CME near the same location was observed at approximately 03/0224 UTC in LASCO C2 imagery, as well as STEREO A COR2 imagery. This event also had a trajectory too far north to be geoeffective.Aside from the CMEs thought to be inbound from 30 Jun and 01-02 Jul, no new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast: Solar activity is likely to remain at moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), through 05 Jul.Energetic Particle The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate to high levels on 03-05 Jul. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the flare potential of Regions 4478 and 4479 on 03-05 Jul.
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background levels for most of the period. Total field strength averaged around 6-7 nT, the Bz component was mostly north, and solar wind speeds ranged between 300-400 km/s. The phi angle was in a positive orientation. At the end of the period, at around 03/1120 UTC, a weak enhancement in the solar wind environment was likely the arrival of the anticipated CME from 30 Jun. Total field increased from 6 nT to 12 nT, Bz weakly deviated southward to -6 nT, and solar winds increased from ~400 km/s to around 488 km/s.
Forecast: Disturbed solar wind conditions, likely from the 30 Jun CME, are expected to persist into early 04 July. Possible influence from +CH72 combined with additional CME activity from 01-02 Jul events are likely later on 04 Jul, persisting through 05 Jul and beyond.
Forecast: CME arrival from the event on 30 June is likely to bring G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) levels beginning on 03 July and continuing into 04 Jul. Further CME activity from 01-02 Jul, combined with possible influences from +CH72, are likely to bring active to additional G1 (Minor) storm conditions, with an isolated period of G2 (Moderate) levels possible.