Date: 2026 Oct 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar activity remained at low levels, with the largest flare of the period a C3.5 at 22/0304 UTC from Region 4560 (N13W35, Eai/beta-gamma), which continued to exhibit growth in its intermediary region. Region 4557 (N07W61, Dao/beta) continued a gradual state of decay, primarily in its intermediate and trailing spots and sparked a handful of B-level enhancements to the X-ray flux. While Region 4551 (S16W90, Eko/beta-gamma) was still on disk for this reporting period, its proximity to the western limb is causing severe foreshortening effects, so while the region appeared to be relatively stable, this analysis is low confidence.A CME observed after 21/0900 UTC in LASCO C2 originated from dimming just southeastward of the northern negative polar CH cap, centered near N28E05, as observed in SUVI 195 imagery beginning at approximately 21/0830 UTC. Another CME with similar dimming in the northern hemisphere was observed beginning around 21/20:35 UTC in LASCO C2. Modeling of these two events indicates little to no interaction between the two, and while the second is likely to pass entirely above Earth orbit, the first has potential for a weak glancing blow to Earth on 25 or 26 Oct. However, confidence is low in this outcome given the extended range of the forecast and that a bulk of the material should pass well behind Earths orbit.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 24 Oct, with a slight chance (15-20%) for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate).Energetic Particle The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 22 Oct with a chance to reach high levels on 23-24 Oct due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels, with no S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms expected through 24 Oct.
Solar wind parameters reflected positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field began the period around 10 nT and gradually decreased throughout, ending the period at around 7 nT. The Bz (north-south) component was largely southward, with several intervals of sustained deflections of up to -5 to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds peaked near 525 km/s at 21/1445 UTC before decreasing slightly to an average of 460 km/s, which was largely maintained for the remainder of the reporting period. The phi angle was predominantly positive (away from the Sun).
Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through 22 Oct before beginning a waning trend towards a background-like environment on 23 Oct. A return to disturbed conditions is expected on 24 Oct due to negative polarity CH HSS onset.
Forecast: Mostly unsettled conditions at expected in the later half of 22 Oct due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are then expected on 23 Oct before giving way to unsettled to active conditions once again on 24 Oct as a negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.