Date: 2026 Sep 03 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Newly numbered Region 4524 (N12E78, Hax/alpha) produced an M3.0 flare at 02/1920 UTC as it rotated onto the visible disk. This event was accompanied by a type II radio sweep with an estimated speed of 1,181 km/s with the associated CME being evident as rapid field line and structural loops departing the eastern limb beginning at approximately 02/1907 UTC in GOES-19 304 imagery. While the bulk of this event is well off the Sun-Earth line, we await sufficient coronagraph imagery to assess any impact of Earth-directed shock.Additional notable activity included a disappearing filament as seen as coronal dimming in GOES-19 195 imagery near 02/0908 UTC. This event may have resulted in the CME first seen in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery at approximately 02/1108 UTC. Modeling of this event indicates that a bulk of the material should be ahead of Earths orbit with a chance for a glancing blow on 07 Sep.
Forecast: Solar activity will likely reach low levels with isolated to occasional C-class flare activity, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), through 05 Sep.Energetic Particle The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,370 pfu observed at 02/1350 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels through 03 Sep before decreasing to normal to moderate levels on 04-05 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 05 Sep.
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength ranged 1-6 nT and the Bz component was +/- 4 nT. Solar wind speeds decreased to below 400 km/s and phi became predominantly negative at approximately 02/1141 UTC.
Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to largely remain at ambient-like levels through 05 Sep.
Forecast: Mostly quiet levels are expected to prevail through 05 Sep.